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Insight's 2011 Technology Vision
As the new year dawns – and with it the likelihood of profound technology industry revolution – it promises to be a testing time for IT professionals and providers alike. But what questions is 2011 itself likely to throw up? And what are the answers?
Kung Hei Fat Choy! (Not that you'll be overly bothered, we're sure, but that's Chinese for Happy New Year). OK, so we're a bit early, but in case you didn't know, February 3rd 2011 sees the end of their Year of The Tiger, and the beginning of their Year of The Rabbit. Which is unfortunate if you ask us. Why? Well, let's just say that most people – especially those that make a living in technology – would be happier if 2011 was the Year of Not-Just-Rabbitting- But-Actually Delivering-the- Goods-in-a-Big-Way. (Although that isn't, as far as we are aware, one of the official signs of the Chinese zodiac.)
Not to be cynical at all, but although the tech world has seen a great deal of hype, posturing, gesturing, and jockeying for position over the last year or two – most of it less down to earth than up in the clouds – there seems to be precious little of real substance to show for it yet. Or certainly not enough.
This being the case we've been wondering which technologies and issues are most likely to do more than just talk the talk over the next 12 months or so. Which are most likely to start making some more serious noise? What should be on the IT management radar in 2011? And why? Which sectors are likely to win? And wane?
In the view of Clive Longbottom, Service Director with tech analyst Quocirca, the very act of asking such questions could itself be a crucial factor in the months to come. According to Longbottom in fact, the next 12 months could be a major watershed for organisational attitudes to technology investment and deployment; a period during which vendors will be faced with the challenge of "getting real".
"I think that little brand new will come along", he says. "That virtualisation and cloud will be enough to keep organisations busy. "(But) no longer will vendors be able to make hyped-up promises knowing that their customers are not ready to take the offerings. In this sense, 2011 will become the first full year of real implementations at the sharp end – and the vendors had better start telling the truth and stepping up to the mark."
He is far from alone in this opinion, with several industry observers voicing similarly strident sentiments. Brass tacks, it seems, are to be the order of the day in the IT department – for 2011 and indeed for the foreseeable future.
Crucially however, in at least one respect this places greater pressure than ever on IT management. i.e. the IT manager who isn't on top of every aspect of his IT tech supply chain over the next year or two – who isn't, quite literally, dotting every I and crossing every T – is an IT manager heading for a fall.
With this as the backdrop, Steve Demianyk, UK Channel Development Manager for the network management division of software provider Ipswitch, believes that recent legislative developments, particularly the government's comprehensive Spending Review announcements, could have major implications for UK businesses this year.
"In light of the planned cuts… there is a clear need for IT departments to take a fresh look at how IT is actually being used in order to identify unnecessary hardware and software spend, and to redeploy unused or unnecessary equipment and software licences to other departments where they're needed." There will be, he says (and not without justification) particular pressure on public sector IT functions for whom, having already begun their regular infrastructure refresh reviews.
"The timing couldn't have been worse. IT managers in public sector departments are now scrambling around undertaking full infrastructure reviews; looking at what they have, what has been long forgotten, what is being used optimally, and what can be redeployed."
What then, will be the immediate impact? How are businesses and public sector organisations likely to react and concentrate their efforts? There could be several major areas of focus over the next few quarters according to Longbottom; centralisation being one of the key watchwords. "There will be more interest in centralised computing", he says.
Hybrid approaches to technology access; fully virtualised desktops, combined with application streaming and sandbox systems. "Cloud will make this more complex as a hybrid model for the provision of composite applications appears – where a mix of functions from the private and public cloud are built dynamically as a composite means of meeting the needs of a user's current processes."
Mobility will continue to evolve too, he says – the march of the smart device accelerating as Android and WinMo slates begin challenging Apple – giving rise to its own issues and challenges. "Users will choose the device they want to use and, in one way or another, IT will have to support it."
Similarly, he notes, Green will likely raise its head again. "Not because organisations think it's something that they have to bother with, but because central governments will start pushing to meet the promises they made at Kyoto and Copenhagen. This will lead to changes in the datacentre.
It will also fuel a move to better understand how technology can be used to create the Intelligent Organisation; where IT's carbon footprint is regarded against the total organisation's and IT becomes a way for the overall organisation to become more sustainable."
Communication looks destined – as ever – to be another key battleground in 2011, with Nigel Stevens, Product Director at Cable & Wireless Worldwide, among those predicting that there could be as much comms upheaval in the second decade of the 21st century as there has been in the first.
"Few decades can match the ‘noughties' for sheer pace of change. The Internet maturing and completely revolutionising the way people live and work; copper voice networks giving way to converged optical fibre networks carrying voice and data at ever-faster speeds. (But) as Ethernet increasingly takes its place as a utility, social networking influences the communications dynamic, and converged comms solutions transform the way global organisations operate – network service providers (are) standing on the cusp of a brave new world."
This "brave new world" could see a rapid shift away from many of the technology and communications staples to which we've have grown accustomed – and as soon as the next year or two – suggests Stevens. "Even today the next generation of office workers see many of the tools we use on a daily basis as obsolete", he explains. "Email is already a thing of the past for them.
They communicate through multiple consumer-facing social networking sites and instant messaging platforms and embrace concepts like presence almost instinctively. In addition, multi-platform, real-time collaborative tools such as Google Wave are already changing the way these users share information and resolve problems. As this generation moves into the workplace they will demand that this multi-channel approach to communication is taken into the office. Businesses that embrace these new channels of communication will benefit from increased productivity, improved efficiency and collaboration."
These new channels becoming more and more pronounced and popular is certain to have a knock-on effect too, says Stevens – especially in areas such as online identity which he suggests will become increasingly important to business networking. Trying to pick 2011's specific technological winners and losers is a moot point for Longbottom however.
"Technology is technology. Picking the winners and losers is like being placed in a room full of the loveliest women on the planet and being asked what colour curtains should be hung on the windows. The business is what matters.
IT's role has to be to understand the dynamics of the business – what is really required to support the business's processes and tasks – and then to find the right technology to facilitate these so that everything fits within the business's risk profile." In many ways then, he advises, IT will have something of a watching brief over the next couple of years; monitoring the marketplace and appraising the business of what's coming through and its likely impact.
By doing so – by taking a business view of the technology – it should then be pretty apparent what might win and lose.
"IT also has to be able to help the business decide what technologies may be tactical (for example, not paying attention to Twitter right now is not a good idea, but will we still be tweeting in 2 years' time? I doubt it) and what will be strategic (the rise of cloud and the end of the enterprise application as we move to composite applications built from sets of callable services from inside the private cloud and out in the public cloud)."
It appears to be a case of not so much backing a single horse to win and following it all the way, as carefully following the form and keeping a close eye on the entire field. To stretch a point, smart each way betting, accumulators, and combinations are where the smart money could be going this year. Which is ironic. The Chinese Year of the Horse isn't due to come around until 2014.
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About the Author
Laura Clarke is an IT Expert at Insight UK. Insight UK is a leading global single source provider of IT products, solutions and services. From competitively priced computers, hardware and software to services ranging from basic configuration to advanced design implementation and financing, we solve the IT needs of businesses and organisations of all sizes.
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